"Tivo-ifies the web" Paul Kedrosky

60 Minutes on the Price of Oil

60 minutes comes down firmly on the side of speculation vs demand as an explanation of last years oil price shock and traces the problem back to Enron and the deregulation of oil futures.

The analysis is good but non-conclusive. Unlike houses, both the equivalent boom and bust in oil happened together, in a much shorter period of time and in a more extreme fashion. This caused central banking policy moves which take 6 months to have an effect to switch from inflation concerns to deflation in a matter of weeks.

The Oil bubble was perhaps a bigger trigger of the market crash than housing and the fact that we have very little insight as to whether or not Wall Street speculation, Opec deceit about supply or BRIC economy growth determined oil prices, is terrifying.

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